We are starting a series of articles and studies on modern information channels on the Internet, which position themselves as professional investors, issuing investment recommendations and offering to buy from them a special paid subscription for investment ideas for money.
In the first article we will pay attention to such a popular telegram channel as the RDV - Markets Money Power or RynkiDengiVlast.
The channel has been around for 2 years and currently has about 100 thousand subscribers. The main information flow of the channel is the periodic release of investment ideas on shares of Russian companies: the review provides the target price, the status of the idea - Buy, Hold, Sell and the main description and commentary on the idea.
The channel also provides a premium subscription to RDV Premium - the price of which varies from 35,000 rubles (1 month) to 240,000 rubles (12 months). Amazing price, huh? This price is comparable to the purchase of professional terminals Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg for 12 months, where access is provided with stock reviews from leading investment banks and bureaus.
At the moment, there are about 300 investment ideas in the database of this telegram channel, which were issued at different times. In the first part, we sequentially analyzed some of these ideas to show whether they turned out to be profitable, does it make any sense to follow these investment ideas?
In the first part of the review, we decided to consider only the ideas and recommendations that were published in October 2019: there were 7 such ideas.
We didn’t take into account several ideas of the telegrams of the RDV channel, for which there was no target price or Strategy, but only food for the mind was provided (for example, the company goes to the Moscow Exchange).
We decided to evaluate what profitability the investor would receive in 2-2.5 months (by December 31, 2019) if he would follow the recommendations of the channel. We chose this cutoff date for several reasons:
- This is the end of the fiscal and calendar year, usually before it most of the shares in the world are growing.
- There were no financial and political upheavals during this period, it was a period when the Moscow Stock Exchange Index (+ 12.5% for 2.5 months) and the US Market Index S & P500 (+ 8.7% for 2.5 months) grew.
- The RDV telegram channel never sets the horizon of an idea, so formally they do not promise anything by any date: their recommendation can be designed for 10 years or 100 years. However, 1-2 years ago, when at least some ideas of the channel worked, the channel officially announced this, and usually these were just short-term ideas.
- It makes no sense to consider the cut-off date later than March 2020, since from this period all financial markets began to decline due to the coronovirus and falling oil prices.
As a result, from 7 (seven) announced ideas, we can conclude that only one worked - idea No. 3 on the shares of PJSC Lukoil with a ridiculous income of + 0.1%.
At the same time, it is worth noting that this idea was really quite logical and the recommendation to “buy” was voiced by many IB analysts in October-November 2019.
The most terrible and failed recommendations were on ideas No. 2, 6 - a decrease of 21.1% and 38.4%. Naturally, the RDV telegram channel did not mention these ideas in the future, pretending to have forgotten everything. But naturally, she will not forget to mention it in 2-3 years if the shares of these companies nevertheless reach the target.
|№ Idea||Date of idea/news||Company name||Ticker||Target price, rub.||Strategy||Price at date of idea, rub.||Price at 31.12.2019, rub.||Idea return, %|
|1||11-10-2019||Ruble oracul (forecast)||USDRUB||69,0||BUY||64,21||61,91||-3,6%|
|2||14-10-2019||Yandex||YNDX||-||HOLD||1 945||2 708||-38,4%|
|3||15-10-2019||PJSC “Lukoil”||LKOH||7 777||BUY||6 161||6 169||+0,1%|
|7||24-10-2019||PJSC “Bashneft”||BANE||2 677||BUY||1 869||1 677||-10,3%|
We saw that the ideal scenarios for using the recommendations of the RDV telegram channel are their opposite, that is, if you follow the opposite of their idea, then you can make good money.
What are the main complaints about this telegram channel?
- The Channel does not publish his creators in any way, unlike real channels with professional participants (including with the head of research and the macro department of Loko-Bank or the former CFO Alrosa). That is, the creators can be failed students or graduates of mediocre universities that earn on beginners and investors who do not understand the market.
- The RDV channel never closes its ideas. That is, he opens ideas, they never work, so he never closes them, because no one will follow them in the long run.
- Often the justification of a particular idea from the WFD is so primitive and one-sided that it reminds stories of a black swan or a good dolphin. The best they can do is give the median recommendations of market analysts with Bloomberg.
- The recommendations and ideas of the channel are inconsistent and often simply do not agree with each other (we will show this in the following parts): today they can recommend the action for purchase, and tomorrow for sale when there is inconsequential information or the so-called “insider” on their part.
- The authors of the channel never justify the target price of their idea, and usually this price is very “round”: 3,000 rubles, 100 rubles, 7,777 rubles. If you look at really good studies and reviews from banking market analysts, there are usually no such prices there, and there will be a very inconspicuous price - 2,835 rubles. etc.
A review of the second part of the research on this channel will be available at this link.