Colour Investment

Colour Investment

Investment communities - what do we know about them? MarketsMoneyPower (RDV) part 2

April 20, 2020, 06:05 PM • ☕️☕️ 9 min read

Tags:RDVTelegramRynkiDengiVlastMarketsMoneyPowerMOEXRecommendationsResearch

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We continue a series of articles and studies devoted to modern information channels on the Internet that position themselves as professional investors, issuing investment recommendations and offering to buy from them a special paid subscription for investment ideas for money.

We recently released the first part of our study, which is available [at the link] (https://colourinvestment.com/rdv-research-part1/).

In this article, we will continue to analyze the recommendations and ideas of the popular telegram of the RDV channel - MarketsMoneyPower. In the previous article, we examined the investment ideas of the channel for the month of October - there were very few of them (7 pieces).

The next step is to analyze those recommendations that were given by the channel in November 2019 - there are much more (20 pieces), which can be explained by the growth of the channel’s audience and the need to attract attention to new ideas.

We also decided to take as a basis the cut-off date - 12/31/2019 (1-2 months from the release of the idea) and additionally the date - 03/06/2020 - the last date after which global stock markets began to decline sharply.

In brackets (n / a), we separately showed those ideas that calculatedly brought a positive return, but did not reach the target price, so we can’t talk about closing them, focusing on December 31, 2019.

On average, on December 31, 2019, 19 ideas would bring a return of -1.3%, if equally invested in each (with the same weight). At the same time, the Mosbirzhi index during this time increased by almost 5.3%. Even investing in protective bonds over this period could provide a yield of about 1.5%.

Among all the ideas, we do not see a single one that would bring a return of more than 10%, despite the fact that there were liquid and fundamentally undervalued stocks that grew by more than 10-15% over the same period (for example, AFK Sistema, Rosseti , Rusal, NCSP, etc.).

Additionally, we looked at the cut-off for 03/06/2020: the average profitability of these ideas was about -10.7% with a decrease in the Mosbirzhi Index by this date by 4.2%.

In the table, we also did not present the idea that was voiced on 12-11-2019: about the possible SPO of Norilsk Nickel, TCS Group and VEON. None of these companies conducted an SPO until 06-03-2020 despite the positive market conditions, that is, the idea of RDV did not work again.

№ of Idea Date of idea/news Company Ticker Target price, rub. Strategy Price at date of idea, rub. Price at 31.12.2019, руб. Return, %
1 01-11-2019 ПАО “Роснефть” ROSN 500 BUY 435 449 +3,2% (n/a)
2 01-11-2019 ПАО “Башнефть” BANE 2 677 BUY 1 952 1 930 -1,1%
3 05-11-2019 ПАО “Газпромнефть” SIBN 530 BUY 417 420 +0,8% (n/a)
4 06-11-2019 ПАО “Лукойл” LKOH 7 337 BUY 6 140 6 169 +0,5% (n/a)
5 07-11-2019 Оракул рубля USDRUB 69,0 BUY 63,85 61,91 -3,1%
6 14-11-2019 Оракул рубля USDRUB 69,0 BUY 64,15 61,91 -3,4%
7 15-11-2019 En+ Group EN+ 470 SELL 587 645 -9,9%
8 18-11-2019 ПАО “Детский мир” DSKY 80 SELL 93,50 100,0 -7,0%
9 19-11-2019 ПАО “Лукойл” LKOH 7 337 BUY 6 090 6 169 +1,3% (n/a)
10 21-11-2019 ПАО “Газпром” GAZP 300 BUY 255 255 +0,0%
11 21-11-2019 ПАО “Сбербанк” SBER 220 SELL 237 256 -8,0%
12 21-11-2019 ПАО “Норникель” GMKN 17 000 HOLD 17 660 19 102 -8,2%
13 21-11-2019 Yandex YNDX 2 560 HOLD 2 560 2 692 -5,2%
14 21-11-2019 ПАО “Татнефть” (ап) TATNp 750 BUY 675 734 +8,7% (n/a)
15 21-11-2019 ПАО “Роснефть” ROSN 500 BUY 435 450 +3,4% (n/a)
16 21-11-2019 ПАО “Сургутнефтегаз” SNGS 100 BUY 45,9 50,5 +10,0%
17 21-11-2019 ПАО “Магнит” MGNT 3 000 SELL 3 270 3 425 -4,7%
18 25-11-2019 VEON VEON 3,0 $ BUY 2,50 $ 2,44 $ -2,8%
19 27-11-2019 ПАО “Лукойл” LKOH 8 000 BUY 6 065 6 169 +1,7% (n/a)
№ of Idea Date of idea/news Company Ticker Target price, rub. Strategy Price at date of idea, rub. Price at 31.12.2019, руб. Return, %
1 01-11-2019 ПАО “Роснефть” ROSN 500 BUY 435 393 -9,7%
2 01-11-2019 ПАО “Башнефть” BANE 2 677 BUY 1 952 1 848 -5,3%
3 05-11-2019 ПАО “Газпромнефть” SIBN 530 BUY 417 375 -10,0%
4 06-11-2019 ПАО “Лукойл” LKOH 7 337 BUY 6 140 5 592 -8,9%
5 07-11-2019 Оракул рубля USDRUB 69,0 BUY 63,85 - -
6 14-11-2019 Оракул рубля USDRUB 69,0 BUY 64,15 - -
7 15-11-2019 En+ Group EN+ 470 SELL 587 660 -12,4%
8 18-11-2019 ПАО “Детский мир” DSKY 80 SELL 93,50 105,3 -12,6%
9 19-11-2019 ПАО “Лукойл” LKOH 7 337 BUY 6 090 5 592 -8,2%
10 21-11-2019 ПАО “Газпром” GAZP 300 BUY 255 188 -26,3%
11 21-11-2019 ПАО “Сбербанк” SBER 220 SELL 237 220 +7,2%
12 21-11-2019 ПАО “Норникель” GMKN 17 000 HOLD 17 660 21 762 -23,2%
13 21-11-2019 Yandex YNDX 2 560 HOLD 2 560 2 708 -5,8%
14 21-11-2019 ПАО “Татнефть” (ап) TATNp 750 BUY 675 650 -3,7%
15 21-11-2019 ПАО “Роснефть” ROSN 500 BUY 435 393 -9,7%
16 21-11-2019 ПАО “Сургутнефтегаз” SNGS 100 BUY 45,9 35,78 -22,2%
17 21-11-2019 ПАО “Магнит” MGNT 3 000 SELL 3 270 2 984 +8,7%
18 25-11-2019 VEON VEON 3,0 $ BUY 2,50 $ 1,94 $ -22,9%
19 27-11-2019 ПАО “Лукойл” LKOH 8 000 BUY 6 065 5 592 -7,8%

Based on the analysis of these ideas, we also revealed several contradictions:

  1. The target price for PJSC Lukoil jumps from idea to idea - on 10/15/2019 it was 7,777 rubles., 11/19/2019 - 7,337 rubles., 11/27/2019 - 8,000 rubles. At the same time, the price calculation is not justified.
  2. According to PJSC Magnit, the Sell recommendation was given based on the lack of growth potential, however, on January 16, 2020 this potential appears from the head of the RDV admins - the stock is cheap by multiples (but it was cheap by them before). And again we notice that the target prices are very even - 3,000, 5,000 rubles. Settlement is unlikely to get such a price. ECD in its ideas rushes from one extreme to another.
  3. In Surgutneftegas, the high cost (100 rubles per share) is justified by the fact that the company is underestimated and will print a money box. It sounds funny because: 1. The company has been historically underestimated, why should it grow right now? 2. Surgut has been accumulating a cash cushion for years and the company is as closed to investors as possible, but Sources of RFE, of course, know everything about it.
  4. In the Children’s World, the low price target is justified by the overvaluation of the company and SPO. However, there is no justification why the company is overvalued. Historically, IB analysts predict the value of Detsky Mir shares over 100-120 rubles, which is a fundamentally fair price.
  5. We noticed that RDF analysis and forecasts often correlate with reviews of Russian stocks from Renaissance Capital (for example, Surgutneftegaz). We do not exclude that all the conclusions and recommendations of the WFD are based precisely on the research of RenCap.

Additionally, we want to pay attention to April 20, 2020. Telegram channel RDV reported that PJSC TATNEFT would recommend final dividends for 2019 in the amount of 20 rubles. per share.

As a result, as always, the forecast of the RDV (MarketsMoneyVlast) channel failed - Tatneft will not pay dividends on ordinary shares and will pay 1 ruble instead of 20 rubles on preferred ones. The sources of the airborne wars are again knocked out, but by the way, as always, they will not say that “we were mistaken.”

We still do not recommend investment ideas from this telegram channel, since, as we have shown, they do not bring real profitability to investors, but rather a loss.